Forecasting Bond Returns
As we embark upon a new decade, investors and advisors should reevaluate their expectations for fixed income returns. The past 10 years of returns for bond investments have been exceptional, but retirees expecting and planning for similar returns going forward may be at risk.
To appreciate why bond returns have been so strong and what we might expect in the future, we need to better understand the sources of bond returns. DOWNLOAD THE RESEARCH
Forecasting the Decade Ahead
During market corrections, we tend to look to the past to reassure ourselves that we’ve been here before. We take comfort in statistics indicating how quickly the market has recovered on average from past bear markets. It’s true we have been through other crises.
When faced with making a decision or prediction of the future, we have a tendency to overweight recent information and extrapolate that information into the future. Recency bias is a mental “shortcut.” We were overly confident and bullish at the end of 2019 and likely are overly bearish now. DOWNLOAD THE RESEARCH